Wednesday December 24, 2008
Navivest

Initial Jobless Claims, which tracks those applying for unemployment benefits for the first time, rose to 586,000 for the week ending December 20th. This was an increase of 30,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 556,000.

The 586,000 number is the highest figure since November 1982 and the ranks of the newly unemployed is expected to keep growing before it finally tapers off.

The 4-week moving average was 558,000, an increase of 13,750 from the previous week’s revised average of 544,250.

The stock market is shrugging off the news in early trading and the Dow at 9:43 is up 30.67 points, at 8460.16.

Tags: Initial Jobless Claims  Unemployment Rate  Economic Calendar  Stocks 

Tuesday December 2, 2008
Navivest

Traders and investors will be watching the markets today to see if we continue with the massive slide we underwent yesterday. Stocks do have quite a few reasons to continue moving to the downside, as the economy remains in focus.

We got confirmation yesterday that the U.S is officially in a recession and we have more economic news in store that could highlight that fact, providing a negative tone for the markets.

Today we get auto and truck sales for the month of November and needless to say, those numbers will be dire.

The one ray of hope is that with the big moves we got to the downside yesterday, that almost creates an extreme situation, which should not extend too much more without a reversal. A major caveat however, we could test 7,500 on the Dow over the next couple weeks.

Tags: Trading Plan  Stock Market  Options  Trading Idea

Wednesday November 19, 2008
Navivest

With the rout we saw in the stock market today, that had the Dow, Nasdaq and S&P 500 shed 5.07, 6.53 and 6.12% respectively, we are hoping that the rebound that we have been looking for, will come tomorrow.

Today’s action should be a watershed that will hopefully give us a temporary bottom that we can bounce off of tomorrow.

From a technical and psychological standpoint, we do need to see some buying and a strong move to the upside tomorrow. We are already trading at levels we haven’t seen in five years and further violations of long-term support areas could result in further significant losses in shareholder wealth as those who for whatever reasons are still holding on to their stocks, decide to dump them.

If we have any buying in early trading, we would recommend getting in, so as not to miss a technical rally.

Tags: Technical Analysis  Stock Trading  Dow Nasdaq

Tuesday October 28, 2008
Navivest

Stocks put in a phenomenal day today, with the Dow, Nasdaq and S&P 500 surging 10.88%, 9.53% and 10.79% respectively. This is the second biggest point gain day on record. To put it in perspective, we saw percentage gains in one day that Wall Street would be satisfied with on an annual basis. The Dow rose 889.35points, the Nasdaq, 143.57 points and the S&P 500, 91.59 points.

This was despite the fact that we got the Consumer Confidence report for October that showed a dismal consumer confidence reading of 38, a full 14 points below the forecast of 52.

The Federal Reserve is meeting today and tomorrow and on Wednesday afternoon, will announce their latest interest rate decision. Wall Street is expecting that we will get a rate cut and that probably played into the big rally that we got today.

The rally was as broad-based as they come, with just about every industry group seeing strength. Every stock in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, was up and only 6 stocks in the S&P 500 were down.

Some of the biggest point gainers in the Dow that helped propel the index to an 889 point gain, include Exxon (XOM) $74.86 +8.77, Walmart (WMT) $55.17 +5.50, United Technologies (UTX) $51.29 +6.11, IBM (IBM) $87.28 +7.62, Boeing (BA) $48.91 +6.55 and Chevron (CVX) $70.02 +8.31.

The biggest percentage gainer was badly beaten down Alcoa (AA), which climbed $1.74, for a 19.25% gain on the day. In addition to Alcoa (AA), there were 20 other stocks that climbed over 10% on the day.

Tags: Stock Market  Stocks  Stocks Rally

Tuesday October 28, 2008
Navivest

The markets seem headed for a big open today although the pre-market indicators have been wrong over the past few days. If stocks do open strong and stay that way, then the approriate trade(s) for today would be to look to jump into long trades, with the aim of exiting today.

Tomorrow we get the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision and while this could be taken as a positive for stocks with the expectation that we could see a rise, stocks might actually sell-off on the news since the rate cut, if we do get one, is being expected by the markets and won’t be a suprise.

Trading Idea:
Some names we like for today - if the stock market has a bullish day, are the Proshares Ultra QQQ (QLD), Apple (AAPL) and Mosaic (MOS). If these don’t open too much to the upside, then go long or buy at the money calls and again, look to exit today.

Tags: Trading Idea  Trading Plan  Stocks

Monday October 27, 2008
Navivest

Stocks ended the day lower today in what was a very volatile session. Investors initially actually had something to be hopeful about, as stock futures indicated the stock market would open with a triple digit loss in the Dow but when the markets opened, the Dow lost just 3 points.

But from there, things went haywire as stocks traded in and out of positive territory, with the Dow trading in a slightly more than 200 point rage.

Even with that, stocks spent enough time in the green - probably catching some traders who figured we would probably end the day up, in a bear market trap - for traders to view the trading action as relatively bullish. At its best levels, the Dow was up 220 points.

Things got ugly in the last half hour of trading after Moody’s downgraded GM (GM) to junk status and in the last 10 minutes of trading, the Dow accelerated its decline, ending the day down 203.18 points, or 2.42%, to close at 8,175.77.

The Nasdaq lost 46.13 points or 2.97%, to close at 1,505.90, while the S&P 500 lost 27.85 points or 3.18%, to close at 848.92.

Tags: Stocks  Stock Market

Monday October 27, 2008
Navivest

Shares of some insurers rallied on Friday, despite the 312.30-point drop in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, on word that the U.S Treasury might be taking equity stakes in some insurance companies by buying some of their preferred shares. 

This would be akin to the Capital Purchase Program announced on October 14, 2008, under which the Treasury will purchase up to $250 billion of senior preferred shares from banks to help shore up their capital base.

The Capital Purchase Program was developed as part of the $700 Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008 (EESA) that was signed by President Bush on October 3, 2008.

The Capital Purchase Program was designed to strengthen the capital and liquidity positions of the banks that are chosen under the program and to encourage them to increase lending to help reverse the current credit crunch.

Under the CPP, $125 billion out of the $700 billion is being allocated for the purchase of preferred shares in nine of the largest U.S. banks and another $125 billion is being earmarked for smaller banks.

While the Treasury has not confirmed a plan to purchase stakes in insurance companies, we saw an over 4% rise on Friday, in stocks such as Metlife (MET) $29.80 +$1.96, Prudential (PRU) $34.46 +$2.01, Hartford Financial Services Group (HIG) $24.30 +$3.39, Allied World Assurance (AWH) $30 +$2.45, NYMAGIC Inc. (NYM) $18.34 +$1.32, and Chubb (CB) $48.84 +$2.09.

Tags: Insurance Company Stocks  U S Treasury

Friday October 24, 2008
Navivest

U.S stocks will open down dramatically lower at the open as a global sell off spreads to the U.S. Stock market.

Futures for all major indices, Dow, Nasdaq, S&P 500, are all trading limit down, meaning that we currently have reached the maximum level at which the exchanges will let the futures decline and a trade won’t occur below these levels.

The Dow is now indicating to open down about 550 points, the Nasdaq, 85 points and the S&P 500, 60 points. These represent roughly a five percent loss in the Nasdaq and 6 percent losses in the Dow and S&P 500.

There is also a very good chance that we will see even more selling pressure when the stock market opens. So it will be ugly.

Tags: Stock Market Crash  Limit Down  Stocks  Stock Market
 

Stocks posted among their best one day gain today, on word that the government is putting together a plan to buy stakes in some banks, as a way of help instilling confidence again into the banking system.

This follows a similar but more concentrated U.K. government plan to buy equity stakes to the tune of $37 billion, in Royal Bank of Scotland in which it will take a more than 50% stake, and Lloyds TSB and HBOS which are in the process of merging. The U.K government will take a 40% stake in the combined Lloyds TSB and HBOS. European Union central bankers also announced similar plans to inject capital into their banking systems.

The Dow Jones industrial average was up 936 points (11.08%) finishing the day at 936.42. This was the largest point gain ever for the Dow and the fourth largest percentage gain.

The Nasdaq was up 194.74 for 11.81%, closing at 1,844.25 and the S&P 500 closed at 1,003.35 or 11.58%, for a gain of 104.13. This was the largest point gain ever for the index, and the largest percentage gain since 1933.

Stocks were also up on news that Morgan Stanley (MS) closed its deal with Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MTU), in which Mitsubishi (MTU) took a 21% stake in Morgan Stanley (MS). Wall Street was worried the deal might not go through, after Morgan Stanley’s stock fell over 60% since the deal was first announced on September 22nd, 2008.

Tags: Dow Jones  Nasdaq  S&P 500  Morgan Stanley

After yesterday’s incredible rally which saw stocks take off at about 2:40 PM and and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climb over 400 in 80 minutes, to close at 11019.69 for a gain of 410 or 3.86%, we might see a follow through today.

Stocks rallied on word that the government is working on developing a plan that would have it set up a rumored $800 billion fund that would buy bad mortgage backed asset from financial institutions which would unencumber their balance sheets.

If the rally carries on into today, traders should look at buying regional bank stocks as they were some of the better performers yesterday. Some stocks to consider would be City National (CYN), SVB Financial (SIVB), Cathay General Bancorp (CATY), United Security Bancshares and PacWest Bancorp (PACW).

 Tags: Stocks  Trading Ideas