Navivest Stocks and Options Blog

Trader Beware!

Jul 14, 2010 Stock Market, Stocks

The stock market has been on a tear of late, with the major indices having closed higher in each of the last six sessions. This type of rise in the stock market tends to draw in traders and investors from the sidelines who might have been reticent to put money to work.

However, those considering putting new money to work need to approach the market with caution. We are still in a very volatile phase and this could end up being a huge bear market trap.

Yesterday, credit rating firm Moody’s (MCO) downgraded Portugal’s sovereign debt rating. The market brushed off the news and we ended up with very big gains on the day. The Moody’s ratings downgrade will most likely not be the end of the story. Portugal and possibly Spain will most likely at some point in the near future, spook the markets and send stocks lower again, so traders need to watch for that.

So far, second quarter earnings are encouraging and should this continue, we may get more of a lift that sends stocks higher, so while we would advocate being in the markets right now, we also advocate locking in profits and trading with stops, readjusting these if stocks continue to move higher.

Tags: moody's, portugal debt rating, Stock Market, Stocks

Dow Industrials Make It Three Straight Days Of Gains

Jul 8, 2010 Stock Market, Stocks

The Dow Jones Industrial Average followed up yesterday’s 274.66 point gain, with a 120.71 gain today, making it three straight days of gains for the index. Twenty-nine stocks out of the thirty stocks in the Dow closed higher with Intel (INTC) the lone laggard, closing down $0.04 to $20.10. McDonald’s (MCD) and Boeing (BA) were the biggest gainers, rising $1.71 to $69.02 and $1.43 to $64.73 respectively.

Energy stocks were strong positive movers on the day on the back of a $1.83 rise in the price of oil. Anadarko Petroleum (APC) was up $2.97 to $44.56 and EOG Resources (EOG) added $2.42 to $106.22.

Retail stocks were mixed on the release of June sales numbers from the nation’s major retailers. Teen clothing retailer Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) added $2.55 to $35.45 and Ross Stores (ROST) was off 41.32 to $54.03

Tags: Stock Market, Stocks

Stocks To Watch – 06/30/10

Jun 30, 2010 Stock Market, Stock to watch, Stocks

With the major indices trading in a very tight range, there isn’t much movement in individual stocks. A few standouts include electric car company Tesla Motors (TSLA), which went public yesterday and gained 40% in its first day of trading. The stock is up another 33.12% so far today, on a $6.83 to $27.45 in the shares.

Fertilizer producer CF Industries (CF) is up $3.17 or 5.12% to $65.13. Online retailer Amazon (AMZN) is up $3.33 or 3.07% to $111.94.

Among the losers, Celgene (CELG) is off $2.11 or 3.96% to $51.13. The stock is off the lows of the day however. CELG traded as low as $49.54 in earlier going.

Tags: amazon, celgene, cf industries, tesla

Buy Stocks Here On Rebound Expectation

Jun 25, 2010 Stock Market, Stock to watch, Technical Analysis, Trading Idea

With the exception of Wednesday when we had a small move to the upside, the major indices have been down every day this week and today we are also seeing some weakness in stocks. However, we are looking for a rebound and traders can start buying here for some quick profits today.

In early afternoon trading, Wynn Resorts (WYNN) is up $0.87 to $86.90 and we are looking for some more upside in the shares. Yesterday, we sent out a buy trade alert to subscribers of our Navivest Options Capitalist service on the Wynn July 90 calls.

We also like commodity related stocks, which while already up on the day, should see some more upside. In the space, we like Freeport McMoRan (FCX), which is only up $1.26 to $64.70.

Tags: commodity stocks, freeport mcmoran, Stock Market, Stocks, wynn resorts

Dow Gives Up 143 Points Gain

Jun 21, 2010 Stock Market, Stocks

The stock market, which started the day on a positive note, as all the major indices rallied in the early going, on news that China was going to loosen its grip on its currency and let it rise against the U.S. Dollar, gave up all its early gains and then some in late day trading, with the Dow giving up a 143.52 points gain that had been tacked on earlier.

For the day, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 8.23 points to close at 10,442.41, NASDAQ was off 20.71 points to end the session at 2,289.09, while the S&P 500 shed 4.31 points to close at 1,113.20. The sucker’s rally was a stark reminder of the heavy volatility in the markets of late.

Highlighting the massive volatility on the day, Dow component Caterpillar (CAT), which closed on Friday at $65.85 and opened today at $67.56 and then hit a high of $68.35 intraday, only managed a $0.22 gain on the day, to close at $66.07.

Apple (AAPL) opened at $277.75, from last Friday’s close of $274.07, hit a high of $279.01, but ended up losing $3.90, to close at $270.17.

From a technical analysis perspective, the reversal was not at all suprising. Stocks hit a near-term bottom on June 8 and have been on an upward move since then. However, in the past few sessions, the rally was losing steam, with stocks only making half-hearted moves to the upside and the charts were foretelling that it was time to take a breather.

Tags: apple, caterpillar, Stock Market, Stocks

Today’s Rally Seems To Be For Real

Jun 10, 2010 Stock Market

The very strong market rally today seems to be holding, although we are still a couple minutes away from the witching hour (3PM). In the past couple months, we’ve had quite a few days in which the market was up throughout the day, but once we hit 3PM, the selling kicked in and we lost all the gains.

At 2:59, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 229.29 points or 2.32% to 10,128.54, which is very close to the day’s high of 10,150.76. Twenty-nine out of the thirty stocks in the index are up, with IBM (IBM) leading the way with a $3.63 gain to $127.53, while Cisco (CSCO) is the laggard, down $0.10 to $22.68.

Tags: ibm, Stock Market, Stocks

Buy Stocks Today For Quick Intraday Profits

May 26, 2010 Options, Stock Market

Stock futures are indicating a higher opening, following yesterday’s dramatic action that saw the Dow Jones Industrials go from an open of 10,061.43, fall to a low of 9,774.48, but then close at 10,043.75, for a loss of just 22.82 points.

Today could present some opportunity for some quick intra-day profits on the long side for traders. We are recommending trades for today to subscribers of our services, telling them to buy a few minutes after the open if stocks open strong as suggested pre-market action. We also recommend taking very quick profits as the stock market has taken on a bipolar personality of late. We could open to the upside, but still see some major selling as the day progresses.

Option traders have a chance for even bigger profit opportunities. We should see big moves in select stocks that could mean 20% or more profits in the front month call options of those stocks.

Tags: market volatility, Stock Market, Stocks

Stock Market Report – 04/27/10

Apr 27, 2010 Stock Market

The stock market finally got stopped in its tracks on Tuesday, with all the major U.S indices falling steeply on worries over Greece and on concerns that Greece’s contagion could possibly spread to Portugal and Spain. A ratings cut of both Greece’s and Portugal’s debt by ratings agency Standard and Poor’s further exacerbated the situation.

Standard and Poor’s cut its long-term local and foreign currency sovereign issuer credit rating on Portugal from “A+’ from ‘A-’ and cut its rating on Greece to “BB+”, which is considered junk status.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 213.04 points to close at 10,991.99, a loss of 1.9%, NASDAQ dropped 51.48 points to close at 2,471.47, a loss of 2%, the S&P 500 was off 28.34 points, to close at 1,183.71 or 2.3%, while the Russell 2000 ended the session down 17.59 points or 2.38%, to close at 721.27.

Among Dow stocks, Caterpillar (CAT), which rose from a close of $68.78 on Friday, to a close of $71.65 on Monday on the company’s latest earnings news, gave up all those gains on Tuesday, dropping $3.12 to $68.53. Chevron (CVX) was the next biggest dropper, losing $2.36 to $80.23, followed by United Technologies (UTX) – $74.32 -$2.08 and IBM (IBM) – $128.82 -$1.91.

3M (MMM), which reported better than expected Q1 2010 earnings before the bell, was the only gainer, adding $0.53 to $87.97. The stock was as high as $90.25 earlier in the session. Wal-mart (WMT) was unchanged at $54.04.

In broader trading, Cummins Inc (CMI) was the biggest gainer in the S&P 500, with a gain of $2.09 to close at $72.40, followed by Avery Dennison (AVY), also up by $2.09 to close at $41.39. Every other advancing stock in the S&P 500 rose by less than $1.25.

Washington Post (WPO) was the biggest point decliner, with a drop of $14.76, to close at $517.51, followed by MasterCard (MA) – $254.82 -$10.93, CME Group (CME) – $333.26 -$8.49, Apple (AAPL) – $266.04 -$7.46 and AIG (AIG) $37.37 -$7.14.

Tags: caterpillar, goldman sachs, ibm, Stock Market, united technologies

Stock Market Report – 04/26/10

Apr 26, 2010 Earnings, Stock Market

Although the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed off the highs of the day, the trading range for the day was 11,187.65 -11,258.01, the index kept up its slow creep to the upside, extending the number of winning sessions to six straight and making it thirty three up days out of the last forty one sessions. Sixteen Dow stocks closed higher, with fourteen falling. The NASDAQ and the S&P 500 closed marginally lower.

The Dow finished the session up 0.75 points to close at 11,205.03; the NASDAQ lost 7.20 points to close at 2,522.95, while the S&P 500 was off by 5.23 points, finishing the session at 1,212.05.

Caterpillar (CAT) was the stand out and kept the Dow in positive territory for the day. The stock rallied $2.87 to $71.65, a 4.17% gain on the company’s 2010 Q1 results, which was released before the markets opened.

For the period, Caterpillar reported a profit of $0.36 per share, a dramatic improvement over the $0.19 loss reported in the year ago first quarter period. Excluding special items, the company reported adjusted profits of $0.50 per share, from $0.39 per share in Q1 2009. Revenue came in at $8.24 billion from $9.23 billion in Q1 2009. Analysts had been looking for the company to report earnings per share of $0.39 on revenue of $8.84 billion.

Among other Dow stocks, 3M (MMM) was up $0.86 to $87.44, IBM (IBM) added $0.74 to $130.73 and Dupont (DD) was up $0.73 to $40.95.

In Broader trading, online movie rental company Netflix (NFLX), rallied $8.44 or 8.46% to close at $108.17 on no news. Last Wednesday, the company reported earnings that sent its stock soaring from $86.98 to $100.25 on Thursday.

Whirlpool (WHR) was another big gainer, climbing $10.20 or 9.98%, to close at $112.42. The company before the bell, reported 2010 Q1 earnings of $2.13 per share, better than the $1.33 per share analysts had been looking for. Revenue came in at $4.27 billion, against forecasts of $3.79 billion.

Tags: caterpillar, dow, dupont, ibm, nasdaq, s&p 500, Stock Market, Stocks

Amazon A Possible Buy On Disapointing Forecast

Apr 23, 2010 Company News, Earnings, Stock Market, Stock to watch, Stocks On The Move, Trading Idea

Yesterday after the bell, online retailer Amazon (AMZN) reported better than expected 2010 Q1 revenue of $7.13 billion, against estimates of $6.87 billion and net income of $299 million or $0.66 per share, against forecasts of $0.61 per share.

Tempering the better than expected earnings news, the company reported that it expects operating profits for the 2010 Q2 period of $220 million to $320 million on revenue of $6.1 billion to $6.7 billion against forecasts of $6.43 billion in revenue and $327.8 million in operating profit.

On those forecasts, the company’s stock was sold off in after-hours trading, tradiing as low as $139.50 overnight. Fifteen minutes before the opening bell, the stock has recovered somewhat and is now only down $4.92 to $145.17.

Traders might want to watch the stock and if it continues to improve, go long the shares. That the stock is not down substantially could be a bullish sign and we may actually see it close higher today if the overall market is in bullish mode. If buying the stock, do so only if it is moving off the current lows of $145 and make this a one day trade, exiting the position today.

Tags: amazon